Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): CDU receives less than 25.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt state returning officer)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Three polls in the period July 30–August 12, 2026 (dawum.de aggregation): CDU averages 22.9% (Pollytix Aug 12: 23%, INSA Aug 10: 22%, Infratest dimap/MDR Jul 30: 24%). The 25% threshold was not reached in any of the three surveys. AfD dominates at ~42%, pushing CDU to second — a loss of ~14 percentage points vs the 2021 result (37.1%). Historical final-poll vs. result deviation for CDU in eastern Germany: typically ±2–3 pp. Even with a maximum +3 pp overperformance, CDU would land at 25–26%; an outcome just above 25% is statistically possible but unlikely. No prediction market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de: CDU Sachsen-Anhalt Aggregat 22,9 % (Stand 12.08.2026)
- INSA/BILD: CDU 22 %, AfD 42 % (10.08.2026; Feldarbeit 31. Jul – 6. Aug.)
- Infratest dimap/MDR: CDU 24 %, AfD 41 % (30.07.2026; Feldarbeit 23.–28. Jul.)
- wahlrecht.de: CDU Sachsen-Anhalt Ergebnis 2021: 37,1 % (historischer Vergleich)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CDU erzielte 16,2–17,5 %, deutlich unter 25,0 %. Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
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