Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): CDU receives more than 19.5% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer or tagesschau.de)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Infratest dimap for ARD puts the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt at 22% (26 August 2026, –2 pp vs July). Campact/Insa (12 August) measured 23%. The buffer above the 19.5% threshold is 2.5–3.5 pp. Historically, the CDU has never polled below 20% in a Saxony-Anhalt state election (2011: 32.5%; 2016: 29.8%; 2021: 37.1%). Even in the worst current scenario with polling decline, falling below 19.5% would be historically exceptional. No dedicated prediction market available; estimate conservatively anchored to polling with a –2.5 pp safety buffer.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap / ARD Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU 22% (26. August 2026)
- Campact/Insa Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU 23% (12. August 2026)
- Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl 2021 Ergebnis: CDU 37,1% (Landeswahlleiter ST)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CDU erzielte 16,2–17,5 %, nicht mehr als 19,5 %. Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
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