Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): AfD receives more than 35.0% of votes cast (confirmed by State Returning Officer Saxony-Anhalt or tagesschau.de)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Infratest dimap LänderTREND Saxony-Anhalt, May 2026) put the AfD at approximately 41%. At the 2021 Landtag election the AfD received 20.8%; since then it has gained substantially in eastern Germany. For a result below 35%, the AfD would need to underperform polls by at least 6 percentage points – historically extraordinary. CDU trails at ~28–30%, Die Linke at ~12%, SPD at ~7%. No Polymarket or Kalshi odds for this specific result; wahlrecht.de confirms polling trend. Probability: 78%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap LänderTREND Sachsen-Anhalt Mai 2026: AfD ~41 %
- wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfrage Sachsen-Anhalt 2026 – AfD ca. 41 % (Stand August 2026)
- Wikipedia: Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt 2026 (Übersicht Kandidatur/Umfragen)
- Statistisches Landesamt Sachsen-Anhalt: Ergebnis 2021 – AfD 20,8 %
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] AfD erzielte 20,8 % — weit unter 35,0 %. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.