🏛️ Politics
· Tomorrow
Russian State Duma Election (September 20, 2026): United Russia surpasses 49.0% of party-list votes
Probability
70%
In the first Russian parliamentary elections since the 2022 invasion, United Russia officially received 49.82% in 2021 and 54.2% in 2016. Pre-election polls for 2026 show real support at ~40%; the gap to the official result reflects known manipulation mechanisms. Foreign Policy and Time attest United Russia an 'all but assured' victory. In the nationalist, war-charged atmosphere with full media control, an official result above 49.0% — as in 2021 — is assessed as probable. No prediction market found with this specific threshold; calibrated on historical CEC patterns and analyst assessments. Confirmation expected from Russia's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) from September 21, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- CEC Russia Dumawahl 2021: Einiges Russland 49,82 % Parteilistenstimmen (offiz. Ergebnis)
- CEC Russia Dumawahl 2016: Einiges Russland 54,20 % Parteilistenstimmen
- ForeignPolicy.com 18.09.2026: Vorwahlunterstützung ~40 %, Sieg 'all but assured'
- Time.com 18.09.2026: 'Why the Outcome of Russia's First Parliamentary Elections Is All But Assured'
Verdict: Hit
Einiges Russland erzielte bei der russischen Staatsduma-Wahl vom 18.–20. September 2026 offiziell ca. 57,83 % der Parteilistenstimmen – deutlich über der prognostizierten Schwelle von 49,0 %. Das Ergebnis übertriff sogar das Resultat von 2021 (49,82 %) erheblich. Quellen: Kommersant (57,87 %), Meduza (57,5 % nach 14 % ausgezählten Protokollen), Al Jazeera, Wikipedia (2026 Russian legislative election), The Moscow Times ('record State Duma majority').