Russian State Duma election (September 18–20, 2026): LDPR receives more than 10.0% of valid party-list votes (confirmed by Russian Central Election Commission or Reuters by September 21, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
·
Predicted for 21. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 17, 2026) puts LDPR under Leonid Slutsky at 12.8% (= 63 seats). The 10.0% threshold is 2.8 points below the survey figure. Even significant state-managed count adjustments in favor of United Russia are unlikely to push LDPR below 10%, as it also holds direct-mandate seats. United Russia polled at 46% (existing >47% prediction thus at risk), KPRF at 15.8%. No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Russland, Stand 17.09.2026: LDPR 12,8 % → 63 Sitze prognostiziert
- PolitPro gesamt: United Russia 46 %, KPRF 15,8 %, LDPR 12,8 %, New People 11,5 % (17.09.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election (Übersicht Kandidaten & Parteiliste)
- PolitPro.eu/en/russia/election/parliament/2026 (abgerufen 18.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die LDPR erzielte im Endresultat 9,06 % der Parteilistenstimmen – unter der Schwelle von 10,0 % (Quelle: Wikipedia 2026 Russian legislative election, Outlook India).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.