🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Vänsterpartiet (V) wins more than 7.0% of votes (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

74%

All current polls show V clearly above 7%: Novus (Sept 6–8) 7.5%, Verian (Sept 2) 8.1%, Demoskop (Sept 1) 7.9%, Indikator Opinion (Sept 4) 9.3%. PolitPro aggregate (10 September 2026): 8.0%. The left-wing party benefits from strong Röd-grön mobilization. A sub-7% result would require a massive polling error currently invisible in any survey. No specific Polymarket market found for V; the overall market confirms the Röd-grön lead.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Aggregat Riksdag 2026: V 8,0 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
Novus (06.–08.09.2026): V 7,5 %
Indikator Opinion (04.09.2026): V 9,3 %
Verian (02.09.2026): V 8,1 %

Verdict: Hit

Vänsterpartiet erzielte laut offiziellen Ergebnissen der Valmyndigheten sowie übereinstimmenden Berichten von SVT und Wikipedia 8,3 % der Stimmen bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 – deutlich über der Schwelle von 7,0 %. Die Vorumfragen (PolitPro-Aggregat 8,0 %, Novus 7,5 %, Verian 8,1 %, Demoskop 7,9 %) erwiesen sich als zutreffend. Quellen: val.se (https://www.val.se/english/election-results/elections-to-the-riksdag-and-regional-and-municipal-councils/election-results-2026), Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election), SVT Valresultat (https://valresultat.svt.se/2026/).

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