Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Vänsterpartiet (V) wins more than 7.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Vänsterpartiet polls at 7.4% in the current PolitPro aggregate (as of 25 Aug 2026) — clearly above the 7.0% threshold. Ipsos May 2026 shows the party at 8%, SCB May 2026 at 8.6% (±0.8%). All available polls consistently place V above 7.0%. Historically Vänsterpartiet tends to slightly underperform its poll numbers on election day (typically –0.5 to –1 pp), which at a 7.4% aggregate still leaves the 7% threshold likely intact. No Polymarket or Metaculus market found for this specific threshold. Not covered by existing open predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro.eu Aggregate (25.08.2026): Vänsterpartiet 7,4% Trendwert
- Ipsos Schweden Mai 2026: Vänsterpartiet 8,0%
- SCB Partisympatiundersökning Mai 2026: Vänsterpartiet 8,6% ± 0,8%
- Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026
Verdict: Hit
Vänsterpartiet erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (Valmyndigheten/val.se) ca. 8,3–8,4% der Stimmen – deutlich über der prognostizierten Schwelle von 7,0%. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Quellen: val.se (Election results 2026), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', PolitPro election results.
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