🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

46%

Novus poll (1–5 Sept 2026): SD 19.7%; PolitPro trend (9 Sept 2026): SD 19.5%. Existing platform prediction 'SD >18%' is near-certain at these poll levels. The >20% threshold is the next informative target, requiring a ~+0.3–0.5 point uplift or above-average election-day mobilisation. Historically SD shows a slight polling undercount. No conflict with existing >18% prediction; additive information.

Data basis for this prediction

Novus Poll 01.–05.09.2026: SD 19,7 % (statsskuld.se/Novus)
PolitPro Election Trend Schweden 09.09.2026: SD 19,5 %
Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election – Umfrageaggregat September 2026

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielt laut offiziellem Ergebnis der Valmyndigheten (bestätigt via Wikipedia und PolitPro) 17,53 % der abgegebenen Stimmen bei der Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 – deutlich unter der Schwelle von >20,0 %. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election' (1.118.521 Stimmen / 17,53 % / 62 Mandate, –11 gegenüber 2022) und politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026. Die Vorhersage ging von einem historischen Polling-Undercount aus, der sich 2026 nicht bestätigte: SD unterschritt sogar die Umfragewerte (Novus 19,7 %; PolitPro-Trend 19,5 %) statt sie zu übertreffen. Das Ergebnis liegt ca. 2,5 Prozentpunkte unter der Prognoseschwelle.

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