Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Novus poll (1–5 Sept 2026): SD 19.7%; PolitPro trend (9 Sept 2026): SD 19.5%. Existing platform prediction 'SD >18%' is near-certain at these poll levels. The >20% threshold is the next informative target, requiring a ~+0.3–0.5 point uplift or above-average election-day mobilisation. Historically SD shows a slight polling undercount. No conflict with existing >18% prediction; additive information.
Data basis for this prediction
- Novus Poll 01.–05.09.2026: SD 19,7 % (statsskuld.se/Novus)
- PolitPro Election Trend Schweden 09.09.2026: SD 19,5 %
- Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election – Umfrageaggregat September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.