🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) win more than 19.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

Per PolitPro election trend (September 6, 2026), Sweden Democrats poll steadily at 19.5%. All recent individual polls show SD consistently above 19%: Infostat (through Sep 1, 2026): 20.2%; Demoskop (Aug 25–Sep 1, 2026): 20.0%; Novus (Aug 24–30, 2026): 20.7%. No explicit Polymarket market for this SD % threshold; implied market probability based on poll aggregate ~80%. The 19.0% threshold sits below all current polling figures; SD would need to underperform all polls by more than 0.5pp to miss. SD has been consistently the second-largest party since 2022.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Wahltrend Schweden (6. Sep 2026): Sverigedemokraterna 19,5 %
Infostat Umfrage (bis 1. Sep 2026): SD 20,2 %
Demoskop (25. Aug – 1. Sep 2026): SD 20,0 %
Novus (24.–30. Aug 2026): SD 20,7 %

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielten laut den offiziellen Valmyndigheten-Zahlen und übereinstimmenden Medienberichten (SVT, Wikipedia, PolitPro) beim Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 ca. 17,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 19,0 %. Das entspricht einem Rückgang von rund 3 Prozentpunkten gegenüber dem Ergebnis von 2022 und markiert das erste Mal seit dem Einzug ins Riksdag 2010, dass SD in einer Wahl Stimmen verlor. SD verlor in 285 von 290 Kommunen (Quelle: Euro Times, SVT Valresultat 2026). Die Umfragen (19,5–20,7 %) haben das tatsächliche Abschneiden damit erheblich überschätzt.

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