🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 17.5% of votes cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

The most recent Swedish poll (Indikator, fieldwork August 6–23, 2026) shows SD at 19.7%. In the 2022 Riksdag election SD got 20.5%. As support party of the Kristersson government, SD benefits from governing proximity without direct responsibility; migration debate and crime topics continue to bolster its voter base. The 17.5% threshold implies a –2.2 pp miss vs. current polls — conservatively set. No direct Polymarket market found for SD's individual result.

Data basis for this prediction

SD Riksdag-Wahl 2022: 20,5% (Valmyndigheten)
Indikator-Umfrage (Feldarbeit 6.–23.08.2026): SD 19,7% (Wikipedia/Polara, Aug 2026)
Moderaterna 17,6%, Socialdemokraterna 30,5% in derselben Umfrage (PolitPro, Aug 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielt laut offizieller schwedischer Wahlbehörde (val.se) exakt 17,48% der abgegebenen Stimmen – damit knapp unter der Schwelle von >17,5%. Die Vorhersage wurde somit hauchdünn verfehlt. SD erlitt erstmals seit 2010 einen Stimmenverlust (minus ~3 Prozentpunkte gegenüber 2022) und fiel auf den dritten Platz. Das Ergebnis lag zudem deutlich unter dem letzten Umfragewert von 19,7% (Indikator, August 2026). Quellen: val.se (Wahlergebnis 2026), Outlook India («Sweden Democrats Lose Ground, Fall to Third With 17.5% Vote Share»).

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