Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Sverigedemokraterna (SD) receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
PolitPro Election Trend (August 23, 2026): SD at 19.3%. More recent individual polls show significantly higher figures: Verian (Aug 25–Sep 7, 2026) 20.8%; Indikator (Aug 18–Sep 8, 2026) 21.0%; Novus (Sep 8–19, 2026) 23.9%. SD tends to outperform polls in Sweden ('shy voter' effect). The 20% threshold is close to the current polling average; late shifts and mobilisation effects favour crossing it. No direct prediction market pricing available.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Schweden: SD 19,3 % (23. August 2026, politpro.eu)
- Wikipedia/Grokipedia: Opinion Polling 2026 Swedish Election – Verian 20,8 %, Indikator 21,0 %, Novus 23,9 %
- polara.se/democracy-pulse.com: SD als zweitstärkste Kraft, ~19 % Schnitt (August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.