🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Sverigedemokraterna (SD) receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

63%

PolitPro Election Trend (August 23, 2026): SD at 19.3%. More recent individual polls show significantly higher figures: Verian (Aug 25–Sep 7, 2026) 20.8%; Indikator (Aug 18–Sep 8, 2026) 21.0%; Novus (Sep 8–19, 2026) 23.9%. SD tends to outperform polls in Sweden ('shy voter' effect). The 20% threshold is close to the current polling average; late shifts and mobilisation effects favour crossing it. No direct prediction market pricing available.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Schweden: SD 19,3 % (23. August 2026, politpro.eu)
Wikipedia/Grokipedia: Opinion Polling 2026 Swedish Election – Verian 20,8 %, Indikator 21,0 %, Novus 23,9 %
polara.se/democracy-pulse.com: SD als zweitstärkste Kraft, ~19 % Schnitt (August 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielt laut Valmyndigheten 17,48 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter der prognostizierten Schwelle von 20,0 %. Das Ergebnis bedeutet sogar einen Rückgang gegenüber 2022 (20,5 %) und einen Verlust von 11 Mandaten (von 73 auf 62). Der erwartete 'Shy Tory'-Effekt trat nicht ein; stattdessen übertrafen die Umfragen das tatsächliche Ergebnis um rund 3–6 Prozentpunkte (z. B. Novus hatte 23,9 % prognostiziert). Die Linksbloc-Parteien (S, MP, V, C) gewannen knapp mit 176 zu 173 Mandaten. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten offizielle Ergebnisse), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', Al Jazeera 15.09.2026.

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