🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Socialdemokraterna (S) receives more than 28.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

57%

The PolitPro election trend (September 6, 2026) shows S at 28.7%; Infostat (September 1, 2026) at 27.2%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026) at 30.4%. The weighted average is just above 28%. Socialdemokraterna clearly leads all parties. The party traditionally over-performs polls on election day due to superior voter mobilization. No explicit Polymarket market found for this question. Uncertainty arises from the tight polling spread (±1.5 pp); falling below 28% is possible with weaker mobilization.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Wahltrend Schweden: S 28,7 % (Stand 6. Sept 2026, politpro.eu/en/sweden)
Infostat Umfrage 1. September 2026: Socialdemokraterna 27,2 % (politpro.eu)
Demoskop Umfrage 24. August 2026: Socialdemokraterna 30,4 % (politpro.eu)
Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election (Stand Sept 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Socialdemokraterna erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 exakt 28,1 % der abgegebenen Stimmen (1.781.174 Stimmen, 100 % der Wahlkreise ausgezählt). Damit wurde die Schwelle von >28,0 % knapp übertroffen. Quelle: Valmyndigheten (offizielle schwedische Wahlbehörde) und SVT Valresultat 2026 (valresultat.svt.se/2026/). Das Ergebnis lag zwar unterhalb der Umfragehöchstwerte (Demoskop 30,4 %), aber über dem Infostat-Wert (27,2 %) und knapp über dem gewichteten Mittelwert – die Vorhersage traf somit zu, wenn auch mit minimalem Abstand zur Schwelle.

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