🏛️ Politics
· Next Week
Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Socialdemokraterna (S) receives more than 27.5% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Probability
68%
The Social Democrats (S) are currently Sweden's leading party in polls: Novus (September 7, 2026) shows S at 27.0%, Indikator Opinion (September 4) at 27.9%, the PolitPro 30-day aggregate at ~28.7%. No active Polymarket market for the S vote share; calibrated independently. Historically S achieved 30.3% (2022), 28.3% (2018), 31.0% (2014), 30.7% (2010) — above 27.5% in all four most recent Riksdag elections. The threshold sits just below the current poll aggregate, leaving a buffer for typical election-day variance. S leads all parties with a substantial margin over SD (~20%).
Data basis for this prediction
- Novus Riksdag-Umfrage 07.09.2026: Socialdemokraterna 27,0 % (statsskuld.se via Novus)
- Indikator Opinion Umfrage 04.09.2026: Socialdemokraterna 27,9 % (politpro.eu)
- PolitPro 30-Tage-Aggregat Schweden: S ~28,7 % (politpro.eu/en/sweden, Stand 10.09.2026)
- Valmyndigheten: Historische Riksdag-Ergebnisse S: 30,3% (2022), 28,3% (2018), 31,0% (2014)
Verdict: Hit
Socialdemokraterna erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (100 % der Wahlbezirke ausgezählt) 28,1 % der Stimmen (1.781.174 Stimmen, 100 Mandate). Damit lag das Ergebnis klar über dem Schwellenwert von 27,5 %. Die Partei führte das linke Bloc (176 Sitze vs. 173 für die Rechten) an. Quellen: politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, democrata.es (100%-Auszählung), Al Jazeera 13.9.2026, Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election.