Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Röd-grön bloc wins parliamentary majority (at least 175 seats, confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The Röd-grön bloc (S + V + MP + C) leads all current polls over the Tidö bloc (M + SD + KD + L). Novus (Sept 6–8) projects 179 vs. 170 seats, Verian even 190 vs. 159. Polymarket gives Magdalena Andersson (S) 83% odds as next PM; a Tidö majority is rated at only 17–18% (Lines.com). Critically, Liberalerna (L) sit at just 3.1% in the PolitPro aggregate — below the threshold — costing Tidö roughly 17 seats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Magdalena Andersson (S) als nächste PM 83 % (Stand 10.09.2026, Vol. 5,12 Mio. $)
- Novus (06.–08.09.2026): Röd-grön 179 vs. Tidö 170 Sitze
- Lines.com: Tidö-Mehrheit 17–18 % Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 10.09.2026)
- PolitPro Aggregat: L bei 3,1 %, S bei 28,3 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The AfD leads consistently in MV between 35 and 38%: Infratest dimap (Sept 9) 38%, INSA (Sept 8) 36%, PolitPro aggregate 36.6%. Polymarket gives 79% odds that AfD wins more votes than SPD. SPD is catching up (31–33%) but remains well behind. A sub-34% result would require a collapse invisible in any current survey. Polymarket implies 44% probability of AfD landing in the 35–38% range and 32% for above 38%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All current polls show V clearly above 7%: Novus (Sept 6–8) 7.5%, Verian (Sept 2) 8.1%, Demoskop (Sept 1) 7.9%, Indikator Opinion (Sept 4) 9.3%. PolitPro aggregate (10 September 2026): 8.0%. The left-wing party benefits from strong Röd-grön mobilization. A sub-7% result would require a massive polling error currently invisible in any survey. No specific Polymarket market found for V; the overall market confirms the Röd-grön lead.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.