Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Röd-grön bloc wins parliamentary majority (at least 175 seats, confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The Röd-grön bloc (S + V + MP + C) leads all current polls over the Tidö bloc (M + SD + KD + L). Novus (Sept 6–8) projects 179 vs. 170 seats, Verian even 190 vs. 159. Polymarket gives Magdalena Andersson (S) 83% odds as next PM; a Tidö majority is rated at only 17–18% (Lines.com). Critically, Liberalerna (L) sit at just 3.1% in the PolitPro aggregate — below the threshold — costing Tidö roughly 17 seats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Magdalena Andersson (S) als nächste PM 83 % (Stand 10.09.2026, Vol. 5,12 Mio. $)
- Novus (06.–08.09.2026): Röd-grön 179 vs. Tidö 170 Sitze
- Lines.com: Tidö-Mehrheit 17–18 % Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 10.09.2026)
- PolitPro Aggregat: L bei 3,1 %, S bei 28,3 % (Stand 10.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SVT und TV4 Exit Polls zeigen das linke Lager (Röd-gröna blocket) bei 51,3 % der Stimmen, was eine parlamentarische Mehrheit (≥175 Sitze) ergibt. Quelle: The Local Live Blog / BytesEU.
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