🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (Sept 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) wins more than 18.0% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

42%

Latest polls show Moderaterna (M) between 17.2% and 18.4%: PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 9): 17.6%; Indikator Opinion (Sept 4): 18.4%; Infostat (Sept 1): 17.5%; Demoskop (Aug 24): 17.2%. The 18.0% threshold sits at the upper quartile of this range. M is the third-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (S, ~27–29%) and Sverigedemokraterna (SD, ~19–20%). Historically, M voters show above-average turnout on election day, which could produce a modest uplift. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this sub-question. Own estimate: 42%.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend, 9. September 2026: Moderaterna 17,6 % (politpro.eu)
Indikator Opinion Umfrage, 4. September 2026: Moderaterna 18,4 % (politpro.eu)
Infostat Umfrage, 1. September 2026: Moderaterna 17,5 %; Demoskop 24. August: 17,2 %

Verdict: Hit

Moderaterna erzielte laut Nachwahlbefragungen (SVT/Valu) und ersten Auszählungsergebnissen vom 13. September 2026 ca. 18,1 % der Stimmen – knapp, aber klar über der Schwelle von 18,0 %. Quellen: ZDF/nordisch.info (Prognose 18,1 %), PolitPro-Ergebnisseite (politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026), Euronews (14.09.2026). Die endgültigen amtlichen Ergebnisse werden von der schwedischen Wahlbehörde (val.se) erst ca. eine Woche nach dem Wahltag veröffentlicht; die vorliegenden Zahlen sind vorläufig, zeigen aber konsistent einen Wert leicht über 18,0 %. Die Mobilisierungsstärke der M-Wähler am Wahltag hat – wie in der Begründung antizipiert – tatsächlich einen geringen Uplift gegenüber den Umfragemittelwerten geliefert.

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