Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) receives more than 17.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 14. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Moderaterna under PM Ulf Kristersson polled 17.4–18.4% in final pre-election surveys: Infostat (September 1): 17.5%; Indikator Opinion (September 4): 18.4%; PolitPro aggregate: 17.4%. The 17.0% threshold is below all current estimates. No Cassandra duplicate: SD, S, C, V, L, KD and MP are covered — but not M. Typical ±1.5–2% polling error could push M slightly below the threshold, but stable conservative voter loyalty argues against it.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infostat Poll 1. September 2026: Moderaterna 17,5 % (PolitPro.eu)
- Indikator Opinion Poll 4. September 2026: Moderaterna 18,4 % (PolitPro.eu)
- PolitPro Trendaggregat Sept 2026: M bei 17,4 % (Platz 3 hinter S und SD)
- Valmyndigheten: Vorläufige Ergebnisse ab ca. 21:00 Uhr MESZ am 13. September 2026
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 erzielte Moderaterna laut Exit Polls 17,2–18,1% (über der Schwelle von 17,0%). Quelle: Valmyndigheten, Wikipedia (Swedish general election 2026)
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