Swedish Riksdag Election (Sept. 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) receive more than 18.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (August 2026) put the center-right governing bloc at ~45% total. Moderaterna scored 19.1% in 2022. Current Sifo/Novus polls show M at 16–19%, making 18% a borderline threshold. If SD is at ~20% and bloc total is 45%, M+KD+L = 25%; with KD ~5.5% and L ~4.5%, M computes to ~15–16%. Only if the bloc outperforms (≥46%) or SD underperforms (<19%) does >18% for M become plausible. Polymarket has no specific Moderaterna question.
Data basis for this prediction
- Moderaterna Wahlergebnis 2022: 19,1 % (Valmyndigheten)
- Sifo/Novus Umfragen Aug 2026: M bei 16–19 %, Lager gesamt ~45 % (Wikipedia, Swedish election polling 2026)
- Plattformprognose: SD >19 % bei Riksdag-Wahl 13.09.2026 (Cassandra.news, offen)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.