Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Moderata samlingspartiet (M) receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Demoskop/Ipsos, as of ca. 20 August 2026) show Moderata samlingspartiet (M) at approximately 16.8%, down from 19.1% in the 2022 Riksdag election. The 16.0% threshold is only 0.8 percentage points below the current polling average – not secured given typical ±2-3% polling uncertainty. M is the leading force of the center-right Alliance bloc. Current open forecasts see Sverigedemokraterna (SD) above 20% and Socialdemokraterna (S) above 30%, structurally pushing M to third or fourth rank – further evidence of losses vs. 2022. Metaculus/Polymarket: no specific M markets found; internal model implies ~62% for M above 16.0%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Riksdag-Umfragen Aug 2026: M ~16,8% (Demoskop/Ipsos via politpro.eu, ca. 20.08.2026)
- Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Ergebnis: M 19,1% (Valmyndigheten, 11.09.2022)
- Schweden Wikipedia: 2026 Riksdag election – aktuelle Prognosen SD >20%, S >30% (Wikipedia, Aug 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.