🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Moderata samlingspartiet (M) receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Current polls (Demoskop/Ipsos, as of ca. 20 August 2026) show Moderata samlingspartiet (M) at approximately 16.8%, down from 19.1% in the 2022 Riksdag election. The 16.0% threshold is only 0.8 percentage points below the current polling average – not secured given typical ±2-3% polling uncertainty. M is the leading force of the center-right Alliance bloc. Current open forecasts see Sverigedemokraterna (SD) above 20% and Socialdemokraterna (S) above 30%, structurally pushing M to third or fourth rank – further evidence of losses vs. 2022. Metaculus/Polymarket: no specific M markets found; internal model implies ~62% for M above 16.0%.

Data basis for this prediction

Riksdag-Umfragen Aug 2026: M ~16,8% (Demoskop/Ipsos via politpro.eu, ca. 20.08.2026)
Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Ergebnis: M 19,1% (Valmyndigheten, 11.09.2022)
Schweden Wikipedia: 2026 Riksdag election – aktuelle Prognosen SD >20%, S >30% (Wikipedia, Aug 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Moderata samlingspartiet (M) erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten rund 19,9% der Stimmen – und damit deutlich mehr als die Schwelle von 16,0%. Die Partei legte gegenüber 2022 (19,1%) sogar leicht zu, statt wie in den Umfragen erwartet zu fallen. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, riksdagen.se/en/news/the-2026-elections/

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026