🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Kristdemokraterna (KD) achieves more than 6.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Current polls show KD between 5.8% (Infostat, 1 Sep) and 8.5% (Demoskop, 24 Aug); PolitPro Trend: 6.6% (4 Sep 2026). The 6.0% threshold is well below the trend average but only 0.2 pp above the lowest single poll. KD received exactly 6.4% in the 2022 Riksdag election. Some downward pressure from SD strength and government-bloc dynamics. No prediction market found. Calibration: 62%.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Trend Schweden: KD 6,6 % (Stand 4. September 2026)
Infostat / PolitPro: KD 5,8 % (1. September 2026)
Demoskop / PolitPro: KD 8,5 % (24. August 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – KD-Ergebnis 2022: 6,4 %

Verdict: Hit

Kristdemokraterna (KD) erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut SVT Valu (Exit Poll) 6,1 % und laut Teilergebnis (81 % ausgezählt) 6,2 % der Stimmen – damit klar über der Schwelle von 6,0 %. Das Endergebnis von Valmyndigheten wird mit 6,2 % und 22 Mandaten angegeben. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Quellen: SVT Nyheter (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/senaste-nytt-om-val-2026), Valmyndigheten (https://www.val.se/english/election-results/elections-to-the-riksdag-and-regional-and-municipal-councils/election-results-2026), Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election).

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