🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Centerpartiet (C) wins more than 6.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

76%

According to the latest Indikator Opinion poll (fieldwork to September 4, 2026), Centerpartiet stands at 7.3%. Novus (September 7, 2026) also places C above 6%. The party is part of the Tidö governing coalition and is benefiting from liberal-democratic voters leaving Liberalerna (L, currently ~2.2%). None of the last five polls show C below 6.0%. Swedish polls typically deviate by ~1.5–2 percentage points on average — even with maximum downward deviation, C would remain just above the threshold. No Polymarket data for this party; own estimate: ~76%.

Data basis for this prediction

Indikator Opinion poll Sweden, fieldwork to Sep 4, 2026: Centerpartiet 7.3% (PolitPro.eu)
Novus opinion poll Sweden, Sep 7, 2026: opposition bloc 50.3% vs. Tidö govt bloc 47.9% (PolitPro.eu)
2026 Swedish general election polling aggregate (Wikipedia / dawum.de, Sep 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Centerpartiet erzielte laut den Ergebnissen der Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 ca. 7,5 % der Stimmen (25 Sitze), was deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 6,0 % liegt. Das Novus-Exit-Poll hatte sogar 9,0 % ausgewiesen. Die Vorhersage traf damit klar ein. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Swedish general election), NordiskPost (14. Sep. 2026), Al Jazeera (13. Sep. 2026), Valmyndigheten via resultat.val.se.

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