🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Centerpartiet (C) exceeds 5.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

91%

Current polls (PolitPro, 7 September 2026) show Centerpartiet at 7.6% – a buffer of 2.6 percentage points above the 5.0% threshold. Historically, the deviation between the last Swedish pre-election poll and the final result is under 2 percentage points (elections 2010–2022). Centerpartiet is the liberal rural centre party with a stable voter base. No direct prediction market for this specific threshold; statistical probability based on the polling margin and historical deviation: approximately 91%.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro: Centerpartiet 7,6 % in schwedischen Nationalumfragen (Stand 7. September 2026)
Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026 – offizielle schwedische Wahlbehörde
Historische Abweichung schwedischer Vorwahlumfragen vs. Ergebnis: ≤2 PP (2010–2022, eigene Auswertung)

Verdict: Hit

Die Riksdag-Wahl fand wie vorhergesagt am 13. September 2026 statt. Laut Exit-Polls (SVT/Valu: 7,5 %, TV4/Novus: 9,0 %) und vorläufigen Ergebnissen lag Centerpartiet klar über der 5,0-%-Schwelle – was auch dem Vorwahltrend von ~7,8 % entspricht. In der Wahl 2022 hatte die Partei 6,7 % erzielt; alle verfügbaren Indikatoren zeigen einen deutlichen Puffer über der Schwelle. Das offizielle Endergebnis der Valmyndigheten wird ca. eine Woche nach dem Wahltag veröffentlicht (also nach dem 14. September), doch die vorläufigen Resultate vom Wahlabend bestätigen das Ergebnis eindeutig. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten), Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election, nordisch.info, bpb.de.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026