🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Centre-right bloc (M, KD, L, SD combined) wins more than 50% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

Current polls (PolitPro/Novus/Demoskop, July 2026) show the left bloc (S+V+MP+others) at ~47.2% combined, the centre-right bloc (SD, M, KD, L) at ~52.8%. Social Democrats lead individually at 32.2–32.4% (separate open forecast ≥29%), but the right bloc leads in the overall aggregate. A threshold of >50% from a polling level of 52.8% leaves adequate buffer. No direct Polymarket contract found.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro.eu: Schweden Wahlumfragen Juli 2026 — linker Block 47,2%, bürgerlicher Block ~52,8%
Wikipedia: Opinion polling 2026 Swedish general election, aktualisiert Juli 2026
Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahl Schweden offiziell am 13. September 2026

Verdict: Miss

Der bürgerliche Block (M+KD+L+SD) erzielte laut Valmyndigheten zusammen ca. 48,9% der Stimmen – knapp unter der vorhergesagten Schwelle von >50%. Entscheidend war der massive Einbruch der Sverigedemokraterna von 20,5% (2022) auf ~17,5%, der den gesamten Rechtsblock unter 50% drückte, obwohl M, KD und L leichte Gewinne verzeichneten. Das linke Lager (S+V+MP+C) gewann mit 176 zu 173 Sitzen eine knappe Parlamentsmehrheit. Die Umfragen (pollt ~52,8% für den rechten Block) lagen um ca. 4 Prozentpunkte zu hoch. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', SVT Valresultat 2026, PolitPro.

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