🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Incumbent Tidö coalition (M+SD+KD+L) loses its parliamentary majority (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

Current polls project only ~147 seats for the Tidö bloc (M+SD+KD+L) — well short of the 175 needed for a majority in the 349-seat Riksdag. The open Cassandra forecast that Liberalerna (L) fails the 4% threshold would weaken the bloc further. At the same time the left camp (S+V+MP+C) is collectively much stronger per current polls. Apollo News confirms: 'right-wing camp gains ground but remains behind majority'. No counter-prediction in the existing list.

Data basis for this prediction

Schwedische Riksdag-Umfragen Sep 2026: Tidö-Bloc ~147 Sitze (politpro.eu / Wikipedia DE, 4. September 2026)
Apollo News: 'Rechtes Lager legt zu, Mehrheit bleibt fraglich' (Apollo News, ca. 3. September 2026)
Offene Cassandra-Prognose: Liberalerna (L) scheitert an 4 %-Hürde (Cassandra.news)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 erzielte die Tidö-Koalition (M+SD+KD+L) lediglich 173 von 349 Sitzen — damit deutlich unter der absoluten Mehrheit von 175 Sitzen. Das links-zentrale Oppositionslager (S+V+MP+C) erreichte 176 Sitze und eine knappe parlamentarische Mehrheit. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Swedish general election), Valmyndigheten/val.se (offizielle Wahlergebnisse), Riksdag-Pressemitteilung (19. September 2026). Einschränkung: Die in der Vorhersage genannte Schätzung von ~147 Sitzen für den Tidö-Bloc war zu pessimistisch (tatsächlich 173), und Liberalerna scheiterte entgegen der Erwartung nicht an der 4%-Hürde (19 Sitze). Der Kernsachverhalt — Verlust der parlamentarischen Mehrheit — trat jedoch eindeutig ein.

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