🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (Sep 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) Receive More Than 18.5% of the Votes Cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

88%

Current polls (August–September 2026) consistently show SD at 18.9–20.7%: Verian 18.9%, Demoskop 20.0%, Infostat 20.2%, Novus 20.7%, PolitPro trend 19.7%. A result below 18.5% would underperform even the lowest poll (Verian) by 0.4 percentage points. SD is a highly mobilized party that historically meets or exceeds polling averages.

Data basis for this prediction

Verian-Umfrage 20. Aug–2. Sep 2026: SD 18,9 % (PolitPro.eu)
Novus-Umfrage 24.–30. Aug 2026: SD 20,7 % (Novus)
Demoskop 25. Aug–1. Sep 2026: SD 20,0 % (Demoskop)
PolitPro Election Trend 3. Sep 2026: SD 19,7 % / 72 Mandate (politpro.eu)

Verdict: Miss

SD erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu, euperspectives.eu) rund 17,5–17,6 % der Stimmen – damit deutlich unter der Schwelle von 18,5 %. Die Partei verlor gegenüber 2022 (20,5 %) etwa 2,9 Prozentpunkte und rutschte vom zweiten auf den dritten Platz. Die Prognose-Grundlage (Umfragen bei 18,9–20,7 %) trat nicht ein: SD unterschritt sogar den niedrigsten Umfragewert (Verian 18,9 %) erheblich, was der in der Begründung zitierten historischen Überperformance direkt widersprach. Quellen: https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election, https://euperspectives.eu/2026/09/sweden-election-left-leads-far-right-loses-seats/, https://politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026

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