Riksdag election September 13, 2026: Red-Green trio (S + V + MP) wins outright absolute majority of at least 175 of 349 seats (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Statistics Sweden poll (June 2026): S + V + MP jointly achieve their own absolute majority without the Centre Party. Current aggregators (PolitPro, August 2026) show the Red-Green bloc ~12 points ahead of the Tidö alliance. Liberals polling at ~2.5%, well below the 4% entry threshold, reducing the Tidö bloc to ~41.5%. Lines.com market: Tidö winning majority below 30%. A S+V+MP outright majority would pave the way for Magdalena Andersson as new Swedish PM. Estimated probability: ~67%.
Data basis for this prediction
- The Local SE: Red-green parties get own majority in Statistics Sweden poll (4.6.2026)
- lines.com: Will Tidö parties win majority? – Marktwahrscheinlichkeit <30 % (3.6.2026)
- PolitPro.eu: Sweden 2026 polls – Red-Green +12pp Vorsprung (August 2026)
- Wikipedia: Opinion polling for 2026 Swedish general election (Stand 2.9.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.