📈 Economy · Next Month

Riksbank (Swedish Central Bank) cuts the policy rate from 1.75% to 1.50% at its meeting on 26 August 2026 (confirmed by Riksbank press release)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 26. August 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

55%

The Riksbank currently holds its policy rate at 1.75% (after three cuts in 2025). The next decision date is 26 August 2026 (Monetary Policy Update). Swedish inflation is below the 2% target, economic growth is moderate. A further cut to 1.50% would be consistent with the ongoing disinflation path. Counter-argument: a weak Swedish krona (SEK) could make the Riksbank cautious, as it raises import prices and creates renewed inflationary pressure. No Polymarket data for this event; own estimate 55%.

Data basis for this prediction

Riksbank Calendar 2026: nächste Zinsentscheidung 26. August 2026 (Monetary Policy Update)
Riksbank Press Release Juli 2026: Leitzins unverändert bei 1,75%
Trading Economics: Sweden CPI below 2% target, Q2 2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Riksbank hielt den Leitzins am 20. August 2026 (wirksam ab 26. August) unverändert bei 1,75 % – keine Senkung auf 1,50 %. Die Bank signalisierte sogar mögliche Zinserhöhung. Quellen: Bloomberg ('Riksbank Holds Rate'), Investing.com, RTE, TradingEconomics.

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