📈 Economy · Next Month

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its September 28–29, 2026 monetary policy meeting (confirmed by RBA press release or Reuters/Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 29. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

58%

The RBA held at 4.35% unanimously in August 2026; Governor Bullock signaled only hold vs. hike options remain. July CPI: 3.5% YoY; trimmed mean: 3.6% — above the 2–3% target. A July inflation surprise caused Goldman Sachs to revise market-implied September hike probability from 17% to 38%. rbaratewatch.com: Hold 77%, Hike 17%. Three of four major Australian banks (ANZ, CBA, Westpac) expect a September hold; only NAB forecasts a hike. My estimate: hold ~58%.

Data basis for this prediction

RBA August 2026 Hold-Entscheidung: Leitzins 4,35 % einstimmig (ABC News, 11. August 2026)
Juli 2026 Australien CPI: 3,5 % YoY, Trimmed Mean 3,6 % (bne IntelliNews, August 2026)
Goldman Sachs: Marktimplizierte September-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit von 17 % auf 38 % revidiert (ExchangeRates.org.uk, 29. August 2026)
Polymarket: RBA September 2026 Decision (Polymarket, 1. September 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.

42%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026