Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on September 29, 2026 (confirmed by RBA press release or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. August 2026
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Predicted for 29. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on August 11, 2026. Australian CPI fell to 3.5% YoY in July (from 3.8% in June) — declining but still above the RBA's 2–3% target band. The RBA signals caution; a September cut is seen as premature. Risk of an unexpected cut exists if the economic slowdown accelerates, but current data does not justify immediate action. Market consensus estimates ~80% hold probability for September.
Data basis for this prediction
- RBA August 2026: Leitzins unverändert bei 4,35% (rba.gov.au, mr-26-19, 11. August 2026)
- Australischer VPI Juli 2026: 3,5% YoY — rückläufig aber über Zielband (ABS, 26. August 2026)
- ABC News: RBA hält im August 2026 — nächste Sitzung 29. September 2026
- Marktkonsens: ~80% Halte-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (Bloomberg/MoneySense, August 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] RBA hat den Cash Rate nicht unverändert gelassen, sondern auf 4,60 % angehoben. Vorhersage 'unverändert bei 4,35 %' ist falsch.
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