Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 28/29 September 2026 meeting (confirmed by RBA press release)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
·
Predicted for 29. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
RBA held rates unanimously at 4.35% in August 2026 and signalled no movement until 2027. Australia's four major banks and a majority of economists forecast no cut before mid-2027. Governor Bullock explicitly keeps the door open for further hikes if inflation risks materialise. Underlying inflation still exceeds the 2–3% target band. OIS swap-implied probability for a September hold is ~90%. No explicit Polymarket quotes for the RBA available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Finder.com.au: RBA Cash Rate Prognosen – Banken erwarten kein Cut vor 2027 (Aug. 2026)
- ABC News: RBA hält Leitzins bei 4,35% in August 2026, einstimmig (11. Aug. 2026)
- SBS News: RBA August 2026 Zinsentscheidung live – unverändert (11. Aug. 2026)
- RBA.gov.au: Nächstes Treffen 28.–29. September 2026 (Coming Up-Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] RBA hat beim Treffen am 28./29. September 2026 den Leitzins auf 4,60 % erhöht, nicht bei 4,35 % belassen.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.