Republicans win the US Senate majority in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or CNN by election night November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket shows Republicans at 58%, Kalshi at ~67% probability for retaining the Senate majority; weighted average: ~62%. Structural advantages: Republicans currently hold 53 of 100 Senate seats and only need to defend 22 of their 35 seats up for election, while Democrats would need a net gain of 4 seats. More Democrat-held seats in swing states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania) are at risk. Metaculus sees split Congress (R-Senate + D-House) as the most likely single scenario (49%). This prediction is compatible with the open prediction 'Democrats win the House.'
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Republikaner 58 %, Demokraten 43 % für Senatsmehrheit (Stand 1. September 2026)
- Kalshi: Republikaner ~67 % für Senatskontrolle (via 270towin.com, September 2026)
- Metaculus: Geteilter Kongress 49 % Einzelwahrscheinlichkeit (September 2026)
- 270toWin: Aktuelle Sitzverteilung R53–D47 (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.