Republicans retain their majority in the US House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (confirmed by AP, Reuters, or NYT results coverage)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 4. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi prices Democrats at 78% to win the House majority — implying Republicans retain: ~22%. Current composition: Republicans 218 seats vs. Democrats 215 (as of July 24, 2026, BGOV). Historically the president's party loses House seats in midterms; the razor-thin Republican majority increases flip risk. Counter-factors: GOP gerrymandering in swing districts, potential economic upside. Note: the existing open prediction covers only the Senate (Democrats winning ≥51 seats), not the House. Kalshi sees 78% for Democrats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi prediction markets (via 270towin.com): Democrats 78% to win House majority in 2026 midterms (Juli 2026, $18,9 Mio. Handelsvolumen)
- Bloomberg Government (bgov.com): US House balance of power — Republicans 218, Democrats 215, 1 vacancy (24. Juli 2026)
- FiveThirtyEight/historical midterm data: presidential party averages –25 House seats in midterm elections
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Republikaner verloren die Mehrheit im Repräsentantenhaus. Demokraten flippten zahlreiche Sitze in NC, PA, TX, MI, NY u.a. Bestätigt durch AP/NBC/CBS.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.