10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) closes above 4.72% on 28 August 2026 after Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (confirmed by Bloomberg or US Treasury)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
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Predicted for 28. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first policy keynote at the Jackson Hole Symposium on 28 August 2026. Current US10Y: 4.65–4.66% (as of 26 Aug); 20-month high was 4.75% on August 21. Headline PCE inflation stands at 3.7%, core at 3.3% — well above the Fed target. Markets price ~30% probability of a September rate hike. A hawkish speech (emphasizing persistent inflation risk, no early rate-cut signal) would trigger bond selling, pushing yields above 4.72%. Distance from opening: ~7 basis points — achievable on hawkish surprise. No Polymarket market found for this yield threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- TradingEconomics: US 10Y Rendite 4,65–4,66%; 20-Monats-Hoch 4,75% am 21.08.2026 (26.08.2026)
- Bloomberg: Warsh-Rede Jackson Hole 28.08.2026 – 'Global Rates: Markets Seek Fed Clarity' (26.08.2026)
- CNBC Fed Survey: 30% Marktwahrscheinlichkeit Sep-Hike, 45% erwarten keine Guidance (26.08.2026)
- Yahoo Finance / XTB: PCE Headline 3,7%, Core 3,3%; Jackson Hole 2026 Marktanalyse
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite lag am 28. August 2026 bei ca. 4,676–4,68 % – unterhalb der Schwelle von 4,72 %. Quelle: CNBC, FRED/Fed Reserve.
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