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· Tomorrow
Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe) reduces GC deficit to Tadej Pogačar after Stage 16 ITT (Évian–Thonon-les-Bains, 26.1 km, July 21, 2026) to under 3 minutes 30 seconds
Probability
52%
Evenepoel enters the rest day (July 20) trailing GC leader Pogačar by 5:00. The 26.1 km ITT Évian–Thonon is a classic Evenepoel course: he is the reigning Olympic and World TT champion and just won Stage 15 (Plateau de Solaison). In comparable short TdF ITTs (2024: 25.3 km), Evenepoel gained only ~16 seconds over Pogačar — a very low historical baseline. To close to under 3:30, he needs to gain more than 1:30 over 26 km, which is possible but far from certain on this profile. No direct Polymarket market; probability based on route character and current form: ~52%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 GC nach Stage 15: Pogačar 1., Evenepoel 2. bei –5:00 (Cyclingnews, 19.07.2026)
- Evenepoel gewinnt Stage 15 (Champagnole–Plateau de Solaison) solo (TNT Sports, 19.07.2026)
- TdF 2024 ITT Stage 7 (25,3 km): Evenepoel –16 Sek. vs. Pogačar (ProCyclingStats 2024)
- TdF 2026 Stage 16: ITT Évian-les-Bains – Thonon-les-Bains, 26,1 km (Cyclingnews Streckenvorschau)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Nach Etappe 16 beträgt Pogačars GC-Vorsprung auf Evenepoel 4:32 min – deutlich über der Schwelle von 3:30 min. Evenepoel gewann nur 28 Sekunden auf Pogačar. Quellen: Domestiquecycling.com, Cyclinguptodate.com