RatingDog Manufacturing PMI China (formerly Caixin) for July 2026 reads 51.0 or above (released August 1, 2026, confirmed by RatingDog/S&P Global)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. July 2026
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Predicted for 1. August 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The private-sector RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (formerly the Caixin PMI, renamed after a Shenzhen credit-research firm acquired naming rights in 2025) averaged approximately 51.8 in Q2 2026 – slightly down from 52.2, but in expansion territory for six consecutive months. The NBS PMI for July (published July 31) is already an open Cassandra prediction (≥50.0). RatingDog focuses on export-oriented SMEs and can diverge from the NBS reading. Trade tensions with the US could create modest headwinds; domestic stimulus and consumption trends support continued expansion. Own estimate: ~57%.
Data basis for this prediction
- mql5.com / fxstreet.com: RatingDog/Caixin Mfg PMI – Q2-2026-Schnitt ~51,8, Release August 2026
- tradingview.com: Economic Calendar Asia – Caixin PMI Release 01.07.2026 (Muster für August 2026)
- estimize.com: Caixin Manufacturing PMI China Mai 2026 – Datenpunkt für Trend
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI für Juli 2026 wurde am 1. August 2026 mit 50,9 Punkten veröffentlicht – knapp unterhalb der Schwelle von 51,0, die die Vorhersage als Mindestmarke definiert hatte. Der Wert sank gegenüber 51,7 im Juni und verfehlte die Markterwartungen von ~51,5–51,9. Wachstum blieb zwar bestehen (achter Expansionsmonat in Folge), aber das Tempo verlangsamte sich u. a. wegen schwächerer Auftrags- und Outputdynamik. Quellen: S&P Global / RatingDog Press Release (pmi.spglobal.com), investinglive.com ('eases to 50.9'), ng.investing.com ('China private factory PMI eases in July').
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.