🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Quebec provincial election (5 October 2026): Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) wins at least 12 seats in the National Assembly (125 seats, confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. October 2026 · Predicted for 5. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

Léger polls from September 2026 show the PCQ at 17–27% vote share province-wide, with a particularly strong regional foothold in the Quebec City belt. Polymarket prices a 14–16 seat outcome at 32% probability; cumulative probability for ≥12 seats is estimated at 68–72%. Quebec's first-past-the-post system strongly favors geographically concentrated parties, and PCQ candidates lead comfortably in their strongholds. The 12-seat threshold is set deliberately below the Polymarket central projection, providing a conservative margin.

Data basis for this prediction

Léger-Umfrage September 2026: PCQ ~20–27 % (Québec City), ~17–18 % provinzweit (Léger360.com)
Polymarket: PCQ 14–16 Sitze bei 32 % (Stand 3. Oktober 2026, polymarket.com)
The Writ / Éric Grenier: Sitzprojektionen Québec-Wahl 2026 (thewrit.ca, Oktober 2026)
Élections Québec: Wahltermin 5. Oktober 2026, 125 Sitze (electionsquebec.qc.ca)

Verdict: Hit

Die PCQ gewann bei der Québec-Provinzwahl am 5. Oktober 2026 tatsächlich 19 Sitze (20,7 % der Stimmen), was die Schwelle von ≥12 Sitzen klar übertrifft. Die PCQ zog damit erstmals in nennenswerter Stärke in die Nationalversammlung ein, während die regierende CAQ alle ihre Sitze verlor und das PQ mit 59 Sitzen eine Minderheitsregierung bildete. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Quebec general election', CBC News, Le Devoir / 98,5 fm Resultate.

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