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2026 Quebec Provincial Election (5 October 2026): Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) wins fewer than 10 seats in the National Assembly (confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)
Probability
80%
The once-ruling CAQ is experiencing a historic collapse. Current polls (Léger, Synopsis, Pallas, September 2026) show the party at only 16–18% of votes, far behind the PQ (~29–30%). The Qc125.com seat projection model (September 25) forecasts just 7 seats for the CAQ (down from 74 in 2022). Polymarket puts the probability of 5 or more CAQ seats at only 38% (as of approx. September 28, 2026) — implying a 62% chance of 4 or fewer seats. A total of fewer than 10 seats is by far the most probable outcome across the entire seat distribution. Polymarket gives the PQ 95% for overall victory. This prediction contradicts none of the open PQ forecasts.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'CAQ gewinnt 5+ Sitze': 38 % (Polymarket.com, ca. 28. September 2026)
- Qc125.com Sitzprognose 25. September 2026: CAQ 7 Sitze, PQ 62, PLQ 35, PCQ 14, QS 9
- Umfragen Léger/Synopsis/Pallas September 2026: CAQ 16–18 %, PQ 29–30 % (The Writ / Wikipedia Québec Election 2026, 30. September 2026)
- Polymarket Québec Wahlsieger: PQ 95 %, PLQ 3 %, CAQ 1,4 % (Stand 30. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die CAQ gewann bei der Québec-Provinzwahl vom 5. Oktober 2026 exakt 0 Sitze in der Nationalversammlung – ein noch deutlicherer Absturz als die Vorhersage annahm (<10 Sitze). Trotz 13,3 % der Stimmen blieb die CAQ ohne Mandat. Das PQ gewann 59 Sitze und bildet eine Minderheitsregierung. Quellen: CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/parti-quebecois-victory-quebec-election-2026-9.7370571), Wikipedia EN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election), Le Devoir / Le Petit Journal (https://lepetitjournal.com/montreal/actualites/elections-au-quebec-133-des-voix-et-aucun-depute-comment-est-ce-possible-455523).