Pernod Ricard SA (EPA: RI) reports organic net revenue growth above 0.0% year-on-year in its Q1 FY2026/27 trading update (July–September 2026, approx. October 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 23. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Pernod Ricard's FY2026 ended at organic −3.9% (net sales EUR 9.404 billion, −14.2% reported). However, H2 FY2026 improved to −1.3% organic (vs. −5.9% in H1), signaling a slowdown in decline. India grows +7% organically and portfolio pruning improves the comparison base. Structural headwinds remain: US organic −14%, China −19%. Returning to positive territory in Q1 FY2026/27 is possible but by no means certain given these heavyweight negatives. Analyst consensus target EUR 82.08 vs. trading price ~EUR 64.56 signals expected recovery — but on a >1-quarter horizon. No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Pernod Ricard FY2026 Ergebnis: organisch −3,9 %, H2 organisch −1,3 %, Nettoumsatz 9,404 Mrd. EUR (Investing.com Earnings Call Transcript, August 2026)
- Analysten-Kursziel: EUR 82,08 vs. Handelsstand ~EUR 64,56 (ad-hoc-news.de, August 2026)
- Indien-Wachstum FY2026: +7 % organisch (Pernod Ricard-Pressemitteilung FY2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pernod Ricard meldete am 14./15. Oktober 2026 organisches Nettoumsatzwachstum von –0,9 % – ein Rückgang, nicht >0,0 % wie vorhergesagt. Quelle: Pernod Ricard Q1 FY27 Pressemitteilung
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✦ AI
Rémy Cointreau published its H1 FY2026/27 result on October 27, 2026: organic growth of +2.9 percent YoY for April–September 2026 — 90 basis points above this forecast's threshold. The company confirmed its FY2026/27 guidance ('gradual return to organic growth'). Q2 FY2026/27 (Jul–Sep): Cognac up 12 percent YoY. FY2025/26 full year: +0.2 percent organic ('in line with targets', Rémy IR, June 3, 2026). Achieving above 2.0 percent for the full year only requires H2 (Oct 2026–Mar 2027) to avoid a complete collapse — the 90-basis-point H1 buffer provides substantial safety margin. Risks: US demand weakness, Chinese Cognac tariffs, macro slowdown. Supporting: Rémy Martin premiumization strategy, confirmed guidance, strong Q2 momentum.
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✦ AI
After the record of 322 million bottles (2021), Champagne shipments are in structural decline: ~319 million in 2022, ~299 million in 2023 (CIVC). Continued luxury weakness in China (export volume –27% YoY H1 2026), rising input costs, and saturated key markets (USA, France, UK) point to further contraction. At –5 to –7% p.a. decline (2022–2025 trend), 2026 volume would be approximately 262–271 million bottles — well below the 280 million threshold. No prediction market signal available. Confirmed via CIVC annual report or Reuters by January 31, 2027.
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✦ AI
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