PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) Beats Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS Consensus of Approx. $1.28 Per Share (July 28, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 28. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
PayPal reports Q2 2026 results on July 28. Analyst consensus sits at adjusted EPS of approx. $1.28, already reflecting management's guidance for a 'high-single-digit EPS decline' (~9% YoY). Context: PayPal's Q2 2025 benefited from a one-time partner renewal and favourable credit performance, raising the comparison base. Despite this structural headwind, US fintech stocks tend to beat after already-lowered expectations. PayPal beat consensus in Q1 2026. Without specific Polymarket/Kalshi quotes: calibrated at 60%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PayPal Q2-2026 EPS-Konsens: ca. 1,28 USD (MarketBeat/TipRanks, 18.07.2026)
- PayPal Q2-2026-Ergebnistermin: 28. Juli 2026 (investor.pypl.com)
- PayPal Management-Guidance Q2-2026: EPS-Rückgang ~9% YoY, Umsatz +niedrig-einstellig (Yahoo Finance, Mai 2026)
- PayPal Q1-2026-Ergebnis: bereinigter EPS-Beat vs. Konsens (Investing.com, Mai 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
PayPal meldete am 28. Juli 2026 ein bereinigtes EPS von 1,38 USD für Q2 2026 – damit wurde der Analystenkonsens von ca. 1,28 USD um rund 7,8 % übertroffen. Zusätzlich übertraf PayPal auch die Umsatzerwartungen (8,68 Mrd. USD vs. 8,47–8,51 Mrd. USD erwartet) und hob die Jahresprognose für das bereinigte EPS auf 5,38 USD an. Quellen: financefeeds.com ('PayPal Q2 2026: $1.38 EPS Beat'), Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, PR Newswire (offizielle Pressemitteilung vom 28. Juli 2026).
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✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
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✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
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✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.