🏛️ Politics
· Tomorrow
Parti Québécois (PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon) wins at least 60 of 125 seats in Quebec's National Assembly — provincial election 5 October 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)
Probability
77%
The 1 October 2026 Léger poll places PQ at 29% (PLQ 25%), a clear lead. The vote-scope.com seat-projection model (50,000 simulations) shows a median of 66 PQ seats; the 60-seat threshold corresponds to roughly the 25th percentile of that distribution. No Polymarket market for Quebec 2026 found. The majority threshold is 63 seats (125-seat Assembly; platform's existing open prediction targets ≥64). A ≥60 prediction is fully consistent with the existing platform prediction (PQ ≥64) and adds information: it resolves TRUE even in a near-miss majority scenario. CAQ collapse (<10 seats) and PLQ recovery (≥30 seats) are already captured in separate open predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Léger-Umfrage 1. Oktober 2026: PQ 29 %, PLQ 25 %, PCQ ~13 %, QS ~10 % — thewrit.ca / poliwave.com
- vote-scope.com Sitzprojektion (50.000 Simulationen, Stand ~3. Oktober 2026): PQ Median 66 Sitze, Mehrheitsschwelle 63 Sitze
- poliwave.com Sitzprognose: PQ 63/127 Sitze (Einzelquellen variieren 60–68 je nach Modell)
- Provinzwahltermin Québec: 5. Oktober 2026 — Élections Québec (official)
Verdict: Miss
Der PQ gewann am 5. Oktober 2026 mit 28,02 % der Stimmen die Wahl und bildete eine Minderheitsregierung — jedoch mit 59 Sitzen, einem einzigen Sitz unter der Schwelle von 60. Die Vorhersage verlangte ≥60 Sitze; das tatsächliche Ergebnis lag bei 59. Quellen: CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/livestory/quebec-election-2026-results-9.7369473), Wikipedia EN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election), Radio-Canada / Élections Québec (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/dossier/1013730/elections-quebec-2026).