🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Parti Québécois (PQ) wins most seats in the 2026 Québec provincial election (October 5, 2026, confirmed by Elections Québec or Reuters by October 6, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. September 2026 · Predicted for 5. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

87%

Polymarket prices PQ at 94% (Sept 28, 2026) — by far the highest market probability. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from the collapse of the incumbent CAQ; the PLQ recovers seats but trails far behind. lines.com puts a PQ majority at 17%, PLQ at 28+ seats at 65.5%. All polls confirm PQ as the clear seat winner. A small discount to the market is applied for possible CAQ base mobilization surprises.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Québec General Election 2026: PQ most seats 94 % (Stand 28.9.2026)
lines.com: PQ majority 17 %, PLQ 28+ seats 65,5 % (Stand 28.9.2026)
PolymarketTrader.com Übersicht Kanada-Märkte (Stand 28.9.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Der Parti Québécois (PQ) von Paul St-Pierre Plamondon gewann die Québec-Provinzwahl am 5. Oktober 2026 mit klarem Abstand: 59 Sitze (Minderheitsregierung), gefolgt von PLQ mit 40, PCQ mit 19 und QS mit 9 Sitzen. Die CAQ verlor alle ihre Sitze. Die Vorhersage, dass der PQ die meisten Sitze gewinnt, trat vollständig ein. Die PQ verfehlte die absolute Mehrheit (64 Sitze) und regiert nun als Minderheitsregierung – dies war in der Vorhersage jedoch nicht als Bedingung genannt. Quellen: CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/livestory/quebec-election-2026-results-9.7369473), CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/americas/quebec-separatist-party-elections-result-win-intl-hnk), Poliwave Live Results (https://www.poliwave.com/ca/live/qc-2026).

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