Monday, 9. November 2026 · Next update: 10:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Parti Québécois (PQ) wins an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly of Québec (at least 63 of 125 seats) in the provincial election on October 5, 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by October 6, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. September 2026 · Predicted for 5. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
55%

Current polls (Léger, Mainstreet, September 28-29, 2026) show the PQ at 30% vote share — ahead of Liberals (PLQ, 22%), PCQ (17%), and a collapsing CAQ (16%). Projection model 338Canada assigns a 56% probability to a PQ majority; Route127 also projects a PQ majority government. QC125 is more conservative: 32% chance of majority, projecting 63 seats (exactly at the threshold). Elevated advance-poll turnout (+23.59% by September 28) historically favors PQ core voters outside Montréal. No direct Polymarket contract; the model range (32-56%) reflects genuine uncertainty. A midpoint of 55% is set — just above a toss-up. Key risk: strategic voting by ex-CAQ voters for PLQ in suburban ridings around Québec City.

Data basis for this prediction
  • 338Canada Québec Seat-Projektion: 56% Wahrscheinlichkeit PQ-Mehrheit (338canada.com, 28.09.2026)
  • QC125 Seat-Projektion: PQ 63 Sitze, 32% Mehrheitswahrscheinlichkeit (qc125.com, 25.09.2026)
  • Léger/Mainstreet Québec-Umfragen: PQ 30%, PLQ 22%, PCQ 17%, CAQ 16% (CP24 / Global News, 28.–29.09.2026)
  • Élections Québec: Vorwahl-Beteiligung 23,59% bis 28.09.2026 (cp24.com, 28.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Der PQ gewann die Wahl vom 5. Oktober 2026 zwar klar, erreichte aber keine absolute Mehrheit. Mit 59 Sitzen (bei 28 % Stimmenanteil) blieb er fünf Sitze unter der Mehrheitsschwelle von 63/64 Sitzen und bildete eine Minderheitsregierung. Die PLQ kam auf 40 Sitze, PCQ auf 19, QS auf 9; die CAQ wurde vollständig aus der Nationalversammlung verdrängt. Die Vorhersage einer absoluten Mehrheit trat also nicht ein. Hauptgrund: Das strategische Wahlverhalten in Suburban-Wahlkreisen (genau das als 'Hauptrisiko' identifizierte Szenario) sowie der PLQ-Stimmenanteil von ~24–31 % verhinderten eine Mehrheit. Quellen: CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/livestory/quebec-election-2026-results-9.7369473), Wikipedia EN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election), CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/americas/quebec-separatist-party-elections-result-win-intl-hnk).
Related Predictions
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%
Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%
Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%
Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026