Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge) wins the 2026 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, October 12, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 12. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is announced October 12. Partha Dasgupta (Cambridge) leads the Kalshi prediction market at ~14%, ahead of Ariel Pakes (~11%) and Philippe Aghion (~9%). Dasgupta is recognized for pioneering contributions to environmental economics and welfare theory, notably the Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity (HM Treasury, 2021). The committee has repeatedly signalled climate-relevant research fields in recent cycles. Despite market leadership, Economics Nobels frequently surprise; market probability taken as direct anchor. Confirmed by the Royal Swedish Academy by October 13, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Nobel Economics Prize 2026: Dasgupta ~14% (kalshi.com, Stand 26.09.2026)
- Octagon AI Nobel Economics 2026: Dasgupta, Pakes, Aghion führend (octagonai.co, Stand 26.09.2026)
- Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity, HM Treasury UK (2021)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der Wirtschaftsnobelpreis 2026 wurde am 12. Oktober 2026 an Robert E. Hall (Stanford) und Michael Woodford (Columbia) vergeben – für ihre Arbeit zu mikroökonomischen Grundlagen makroökonomischer Stabilisierungspolitik. Partha Dasgupta (Cambridge) erhielt den Preis nicht. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass Prognosemärkte (Kalshi) mit ~14 % zwar einen relativen Favoriten sahen, aber Wirtschaftsnobelpreise häufig überraschende Gewinner hervorbringen – Hall und Woodford lagen in den Prognosemärkten deutlich dahinter. Quellen: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/nobel-economics-prize-winner-woodford-hall.html), Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/nobel-economics-prize-awarded-to-robert-hall-and-michael-%E2%81%A0woodford), nobelprize.org (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2026/press-release/)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.