Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) reports Q3 FY2026 net revenue above USD 2.2 billion
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Palantir posted Q2 2026 revenue of USD 1.94B (+93% YoY; US commercial revenue +149%, US government revenue +90%), GAAP operating margin 47%, Rule-of-40 score 155. Its own Q3 guidance is USD 2.160–2.164B. A result above USD 2.2B requires only a ~1.7% beat vs. upper guidance; given the record-breaking guidance outperformances in recent quarters and the structural AI growth in defense and commercial segments, this appears realistic. Publication expected approx. November 4, 2026, confirmed by Palantir IR or Bloomberg by November 5, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings (3.8.2026): Revenue $1,94 Mrd. (+93 % YoY), GAAP-Marge 47 %, Rule-of-40: 155 (Yahoo Finance / CNBC)
- Palantir Q3 2026 Guidance: $2,160–$2,164 Mrd.; FY2026-Guidance auf $8,150–8,158 Mrd. erhöht (+82 % YoY, Yahoo Finance 3.8.2026)
- Palantir Q2 2026: 220 Deals >$1 Mio., davon 70 Deals >$10 Mio.; U.S. Commercial Revenue FY2026-Guidance >$3,424 Mrd. (+134 % YoY)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Palantir meldete Q3-FY2026-Umsatz von 2,313 Mrd. USD (> 2,2 Mrd. USD). US-Commercial-Umsatz +148% YoY auf 984 Mio. USD. Quelle: StreetInsider, Yahoo Finance.
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.