OpenAI releases a publicly accessible GPT-5-generation language model by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by OpenAI press release or availability via api.openai.com)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
GPT-4 was released in March 2023 — by end-2026 that would be 3.5 years for a successor generation, historically a very long gap for OpenAI. Competitors are applying massive pressure: Anthropic Claude 5 (Cassandra prediction: by September 30, 2026) and Google's new Gemini Pro flagship (Cassandra prediction: by August 31, 2026) are already forecast. Metaculus and Polymarket estimated ~60–70% probability for GPT-5 releasing in 2025 as of late 2024; extending the horizon to end-2026 pushes the probability higher still. CEO Sam Altman repeatedly signalled major model capacity expansions in 2025. A delay beyond 2026 seems unlikely given competitive pressure and investor expectations.
Data basis for this prediction
- Metaculus: GPT-5-Release-Wahrscheinlichkeit 2025/2026 – historische Marktdaten (metaculus.com)
- Polymarket: OpenAI GPT-5 Prediction-Market Schätzungen 2024 (polymarket.com)
- Bloomberg/Reuters: OpenAI GPT-5-Entwicklungsberichte 2024–2025 (mehrere Quellen)
- OpenAI Blog: Sam Altman zu Modellroadmap und Kapazitätserweiterungen 2025 (openai.com)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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