OpenAI officially announces an IPO or files S-1 prospectus with the SEC by October 31, 2026 (confirmed by Reuters or Bloomberg by October 31, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Multiple tech IPO calendar sources (Forge Global, AccessIPOs) expect an OpenAI IPO in Q4 2026, with November or December as the most likely window. An S-1 SEC filing typically precedes the IPO by 3–6 weeks; a November IPO implies an October S-1 is realistic. OpenAI completed its nonprofit conversion in 2026 (Reuters). Downside risks: valuation dispute, market volatility from Fed rate hikes, ongoing FTC scrutiny. No direct Polymarket market for 'OpenAI IPO before October 2026' found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forge Global Tech IPO Kalender 2026: OpenAI IPO erwartet Q4 2026 (forgeglobal.com, September 2026)
- AccessIPOs: OpenAI November/Dezember 2026 IPO-Fenster (accessipos.com, September 2026)
- OpenAI Non-Profit-Umwandlung abgeschlossen (Reuters, 2026)
- Polymarket / Kalshi: Kein direkter OpenAI-IPO-Markt vor Oktober 2026 gefunden (Stand 9. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] OpenAI reichte im Juni 2026 einen vertraulichen S-1-Entwurf bei der SEC ein und machte diesen Schritt öffentlich bekannt – eine offizielle Ankündigung des Börsengangs bei einer angestrebten Bewertung von 852 Mrd.–1 Bio. USD. Quellen: Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Inc.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.