OpenAI Inc. files an IPO prospectus (S-1 or F-1) with the SEC by December 31, 2026, or publicly announces a binding IPO timeline
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
OpenAI completed its restructuring to a Public Benefit Corporation in 2025 — the legally necessary precondition for a stock market listing. Sam Altman has publicly expressed interest in an IPO; Microsoft and venture investors are pushing for liquidity paths. The latest funding round valued OpenAI at ~$300–340 billion. Metaculus calibration implies ~33% probability of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026. Counterargument: extreme valuation complicates timing (down-round risk), regulatory AI hurdles in the EU and US Congress could delay. A formal S-1 filing without simultaneous trading (shelf registration) counts as a hit. No existing Cassandra prediction for OpenAI.
Data basis for this prediction
- OpenAI PBC-Restrukturierung abgeschlossen 2025 (OpenAI Blog / Reuters 2025)
- OpenAI Bewertung letzte Finanzierungsrunde: ~300–340 Mrd. USD (Bloomberg/WSJ, 2025)
- Metaculus: OpenAI IPO bis Ende 2026 ~33 % (kalibrierte Schätzung, Stand Juli 2026)
- Sam Altman IPO-Aussagen: Bloomberg/WSJ Interviews 2025–2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.