OpenAI: Shares begin trading for the first time on NYSE or Nasdaq (IPO completion) by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by SEC trading commencement notice or OpenAI press release)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 prospectus with the SEC on June 8, 2026. Kalshi traders see only ~33% probability for actual IPO completion (first day of trading on a US exchange) before January 1, 2027 — well below Polymarket's ~71% which may also capture announcements. OpenAI's CFO publicly signaled 2027 as the more likely timeline. If the S-1 is filed on September 30, 2026 (separate open prediction), only ~3 months remain for SEC review (standard: 3–4 rounds at 30 days each) and roadshow — an extremely tight schedule. Cassandra calibrates to Kalshi level: 30%.
Data basis for this prediction
- OpenAI: vertraulicher S-1 eingereicht 8. Juni 2026 (SEC EDGAR / CNBC, 8.6.2026)
- Kalshi: ~33% für IPO-Abschluss (Ersthandel) vor 1.1.2027 (Kalshi Markt, 24.7.2026)
- Polymarket: ~71% für OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 — inkl. Ankündigung (Polymarket, 24.7.2026)
- OpenAI-CFO: '2027 wahrscheinlicherer IPO-Zeitplan' (CNBC, 26.6.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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