Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2026: Emmanuel Mignot and Masashi Yanagisawa win for the discovery of the orexin system
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Emmanuel Mignot (Stanford) and Masashi Yanagisawa (UT Southwestern/HHMI) independently discovered the orexin/hypocretin system, whose deficiency causes narcolepsy — one of the last major unsolved sleep-wake puzzles in neurobiology. Announcement: October 5, 2026, 11:30 CEST. Key calibration signal: the duo received the 2026 Albert Lasker Award for Basic Medical Research — historically the single most reliable Nobel predictor (~25% of Lasker laureates subsequently win the Nobel). Kalshi prices the GLP-1 team (Drucker/Holst/Mojsov, Ozempic pathway) at ~26% as the market leader; Mignot/Yanagisawa appear underpriced given the fresh Lasker signal. Counter-thesis: the societal impact of the GLP-1 discovery (global obesity epidemic) is enormous, which the Nobel Committee might exploit opportunistically.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Nobel Medicine 2026: GLP-1-Team (Drucker/Holst/Mojsov) ~26%, Spitzenreiter (Stand 01.10.2026)
- Albert-Lasker-Award Grundlagenforschung 2026: Mignot & Yanagisawa für Orexin-System (JCI / Lasker Foundation, 2026)
- Nobelprize.org: Bekanntgabe Physiologie/Medizin 5. Oktober 2026, 11:30 Uhr MESZ
- The Scientist: 2026 Nobel Prize Predictions — Mignot/Yanagisawa unter Top-Kandidaten (Stand 01.10.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Der Nobelpreis für Physiologie oder Medizin 2026 ging NICHT an Mignot/Yanagisawa für das Orexin-System, sondern an Karl Deisseroth (Stanford), Peter Hegemann (Humboldt-Universität Berlin) und Georg Nagel (Universität Würzburg) für die Entwicklung der Optogenetik – einer Methode, mit der einzelne Nervenzellen im lebenden Gehirn per Licht gezielt an- und ausgeschaltet werden können. Die Vorhersage lag sowohl bei den Gewinnern als auch beim Themenfeld vollständig daneben. Quelle: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2026/press-release/
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