Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2026 awarded to David R. Liu (Harvard University) for base editing and prime editing
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 7. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
David R. Liu (Harvard University) is the frontrunner according to the 2026 Clarivate Citation Laureates – for developing base editing and prime editing, precise DNA-repair tools that build on the CRISPR platform and hold broad therapeutic promise for hereditary diseases. Liu received the 2025 Breakthrough Prize for this work. Other strong candidates: Harry Gray & Jay Winkler (Caltech, electron transfer in proteins) and Allara/Nuzzo/Sagiv (self-assembled monolayers). No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for the Chemistry prize; the 27% probability is based on Clarivate's track record (~89 subsequent Nobel laureates from ~500 nominees since 2002), ACS C&EN expert polls, and breadth of the candidate field. Announcement: October 7, 2026, 11:45 CEST, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
Data basis for this prediction
- Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026: David R. Liu (Harvard) für Base/Prime Editing als Top-Kandidat (chemistryworld.com, 2026)
- ACS C&EN Experten-Umfrage Nobelpreis Chemie 2026 (cen.acs.org, September 2026)
- Breakthrough Prize 2025: David R. Liu für Base- und Prime-Editing (Breakthrough Prize Foundation)
- Bekanntgabedatum Nobelpreis Chemie: 7. Oktober 2026, 11:45 CEST (nobelprize.org Pressemitteilung)
Verdict: Miss
Der Nobelpreis für Chemie 2026 ging an Henri B. Kagan (Université Paris-Sud, Frankreich) und Kenso Soai (Tokyo University of Science, Japan) für die Entdeckung nichtlinearer Effekte und Autokatalyse in der asymmetrischen organischen Synthese ('Spiegelmoleküle'). David R. Liu erhielt den Preis nicht. Quelle: nobelprize.org / scientificamerican.com (Bekanntgabe 7. Oktober 2026). Die Vorhersage lag mit dem richtigen Datum, aber dem falschen Laureaten und einem vollständig anderen Forschungsgebiet daneben – CRISPR-basiertes Base/Prime Editing wurde 2026 nicht ausgezeichnet.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.