📈 Economy · Next Week

Nikkei 225 (TSE: ^N225) closes above 65,000 points on 31 July 2026 (TSE closing price or Bloomberg)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

40%

Nikkei 225 closing price July 24, 2026: 64,611 points (–2.73% from prior session). A further +0.6% is needed to close above 65,000 on July 31. Supportive: BoJ expected to hold at 1.00% on July 31 (open prediction) — a surprise hike would strengthen the yen and weigh on exporters. Also supportive: strong US Q2 earnings season (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon). July 2026 monthly range: 62,500–66,700+. The 65,000 threshold is derived from current data and distinct from the existing open prediction (>64,000).

Data basis for this prediction

Nikkei 225 Schlussstand 24. Juli 2026: 64.611 Punkte (Investing.com)
Nikkei 225 Juli 2026 Monatsspanne: High 66.700+, Low ~62.500 (Investing.com/Bloomberg)
BoJ-Zinsentscheidung 31. Juli 2026: Hold bei 1,00 % erwartet (Reuters, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der Nikkei 225 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 64.362 Punkten (+2.494 Punkte / +4,03 % gegenüber Vortag) – damit klar unterhalb der Schwelle von 65.000. Trotz des starken Tagesgewinns (zwischenzeitlich sogar +3.400 Punkte intraday) reichte die Erholung nicht aus. Quellen: Infoseek/Yomiuri (https://news.infoseek.co.jp/article/yomiuri_20260731_gyt1t00268/) und Yahoo Japan Finance.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

73%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026